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Monash University Faculty of Information Technology
FIT5047 1st Semester 2018
Assignment 2 (115 marks, but maximum 100 marks = 12%)
Due Date: week 12, Tue 22/May/2018, 11:55p.m.
Machine LearningSubmission: submit a PDF file with all of your answers through Moodle and Turnitin. If you
have a Python .py file (your .py file must be executable on lab computers which configured with
Python 3.5.0) or Java .java file from Question 2, then submit that as well. Also, submit them anywhere else as specified.Note 1: To quote from at least one Moodle page: “Monash University takes academic integrity
seriously’’, “You risk suspension or expulsion if you cheat’’ (“FAIL’’), “The Faculty of IT uses
software to detect plagiarism and collusion’’, etc.
The above mentions a partial and incomplete list of the many possible consequences re Academic Integrity violations.
Please recall the Monash University and Faculty of I.T. policies and regulations regarding Academic Integrity, and please be mindful of the potential penalties and consequences.Note 2: Throughout this assignment, submit work as text and .pdf, no handwriting, no scanning
of handwriting. Follow the instructions in the questions and elsewhere in the Assignment.Note 3: Any student obtaining a mark of 100 or more of the 115 marks on this Assignment will
be given a score of 100. The maximum number of obtainable marks on this Assignment is 100.Question 1 (20 + 18 = 38 marks)
A fictional company (let’s call it Curie-Franklin-Meitner-Mirzakhani-Noether-Rubin, or CFMMNR) has
branched out from its other work on building and launching fictional telescopes (where it bought out the
fictional FWO operation) and visiting web sites (it has browsed and looked
at https://www.ias.ac.in/womeninscience and other sites), and is now apparently involved in mining.
We are pleased to say that this company, CFMMNR, is responsible and cares about the environment and
the welfare of its workers and employees.
CFMMNR has several options for a mining project.
It starts out with $13,000.There is a probability of 50% = 0.5 = 1/2 that precious material A is underground and that it would be
There is a probability of 50% = 0.5 = 1/2 that nothing useful is underground and that it would be worth
Option 1 is to do nothing and keep the money we started with.
Option 2 is to spend $10,000 and mine for A.
CFMMNR has the option of spending $1,000 on a consultant. When the consultant (call her Rosalind)
says that material A is present, she has a probability of 0.7 of being correct and 0.3 of being incorrect. When the consultant says that mineral A is not present, then she has a probability of 1/30 of being
incorrect and a probability of 29/30 of being correct.
When we do the mathematics, it follows that there would be a probability of 0.7 that she would say that
material A is present.
Option 3 is to spend $1,000 and hire the consultant, and then to make a decision (to follow through with
mining or instead doing nothing further) based on the consultant’s recommendation.1a (20 marks)
Using Netica, set up a decision network for a choice between Option 1, Option 2 and Option 3.
(At this stage, do not include Option 4.)
In your answer, give any prior probabilities, any conditional probability tables (CPTs), any utility functions, explain your working and show your choice out of option 1, option 2 and option 3.
State how much money you expect CFMMNR to have.
Moving on from Qu 1a and leading now into Qu 1b, Option 4 is instead to mine for precious material B
(and then see what happens afterwards). Doing this would cost $2,000.
If we do mine for B, then with probability 3/5 = 0.6 = 60% we would find $1,000 worth of B and then
But with probability 2/5 = 40% = 0.4, we would find ourselves in a similar position to before at the beginning of the question (at the start of 1a), except we have already spent $2000 and (as will be described
below) our consultant has different probabilities. The difference now is that, knowing that B is not present, t…
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